RealClearPolitics election polling update...

[mjr]

This CBS/New York Times poll shows that Clinton and Trump are TIED.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

I think this is mainly because Trump has gained some ground in four key battleground states.

RCP still shows Hillary +3.6 overall.

Republican convention starts next week. It'll be interesting to see what kinds of bumps there are on both sides after that convention, then after the Democrat convention.

[Daskinor]

No, its a nationwide poll so I don't think the swing state polling is taken into account.

Looking into the provided breakdowns, its over phone. Land and cell, but they did not include that breakdown. That's a huge red flag. They also captured a crazy number of independents more than the 1/3 you would expect to see.

As far as polls go I don't like it, I my gut tells me they tried their best to make it look like a horse race.

[mjr]

No, its a nationwide poll so I don't think the swing state polling is taken into account.

Looking into the provided breakdowns, its over phone. Land and cell, but they did not include that breakdown. That's a huge red flag. They also captured a crazy number of independents more than the 1/3 you would expect to see.

As far as polls go I don't like it, I my gut tells me they tried their best to make it look like a horse race.

The 538 link I posted in a different thread breaks things down better, I think. Check that one out.

[Daskinor]

538 breakdown I always like better. I doubt anyone thought that Hillary would not take a hit in the polls when the FBI report came out. Swing state wise trump is doing better, but not enough to really think he has the best chance in the world.

My opinion is that the Republican convention will have a net 0 or negative effect on Trumps numbers. Assuming he even comes out with the nom. I think Hillary has a 1% bump, even more if she picks Bernie as VP. The debates will have a larger impact, be the first time the two are really competing outside of their respective bubbles.

[mjr]

538 breakdown I always like better. I doubt anyone thought that Hillary would not take a hit in the polls when the FBI report came out. Swing state wise trump is doing better, but not enough to really think he has the best chance in the world.

My opinion is that the Republican convention will have a net 0 or negative effect on Trumps numbers. Assuming he even comes out with the nom. I think Hillary has a 1% bump, even more if she picks Bernie as VP. The debates will have a larger impact, be the first time the two are really competing outside of their respective bubbles.

538 did note that the most recent polls were conducted partially before the FBI report, so I don't know how that's going to affect things.

CNN noted a few months back that there really are basically four to six "in play" states. A majority of those are "Rust Belt" states. That's where the polling gets kinda interesting. It shows Trump either leading or tied in them, but even in states where he's leading, it's within the margin of error, and I don't think the polling actually shows how many were polled in that state (obviously, the fewer polled, the higher the margin of error).

[Gravekeeper]

At this point I don't see any way the RNC is *not* going to end in riots at the very least. The venue they chose is awful ( smack in the middle of the city ) and the city they choose is awful ( they don't have the police power for this ). Throw in open carry and its going to be tense.

They probably thought hosting it there would help them win Ohio. But that they failed to predict the Trump, the 6th sign of the apocalypse.

[TheHuckster]

I think both conventions are going to be quite interesting.

While I agree that the RNC is going to have a lot of potentially violent infighting, I wouldn't discount the possibility that nuts are going to be at the DNC too, even if they're the same folks who were in Cleveland the prior week. Plus, there are quite a few people on the democratic side who worship Bernie and absolutely despise Hilary. I don't think their presence would inspire violence, but they will be pretty vocal about their objections to the election, even after Bernie finally endorsed Hilary.

Bottom line, I will be praying for anyone who lives in Cleveland and Philadelphia for the next few weeks. I can't imagine being anywhere near the hoopla that's going to be dancing in the streets during that time.

[Jetfire]

At this point I don't see any way the RNC is *not* going to end in riots at the very least. The venue they chose is awful ( smack in the middle of the city ) and the city they choose is awful ( they don't have the police power for this ). Throw in open carry and its going to be tense.

They probably thought hosting it there would help them win Ohio. But that they failed to predict the Trump, the 6th sign of the apocalypse.

They can't even afford to pay for the convention

That's sure to add yet another wrinkle in all the planning.

At this point I'm half expecting them to reschedule it to be held at a local Motel 6 due to lack of attendance and lack of budget.

[Estil]

Typically a candidate gets a small bump when picking their running mate and their convention...it's not until around debate time when we really know who's truly "for real".

[D_Yeti_Esquire]

Ultimately, the tie is unsurprising. When Sanders tried to win the primary his (whether he said them directly or not) kept old Republican talking points going throughout the Dem primary. Add to that, the American electorate just doesn't have that many true "swing" voters.

Ultimately, the Democrats have tried to give away this election which only isn't happening because the Republicans picked such a crazy-go-nuts candidate. But in the end, Repbulican voters don't switch. They are statistically less likely to not vote. And the democrats have done a great job of sapping their own enthusiasm (as they normally do.)

That said, Trump has several more months to say some wheels-off insane comments. So the normal VP pick/Convention bump is expecteded. What is interesting is that he's not ahead (which is normal at convention time.)

As a sidebar, recent polling also has the Repbulican party as almost 90% white according to gallop. And its interesting, because you can see how that slide towards exploiting identity identification has sort of forced to the outside quite a few that view themelves as Conservatives. People like Romney, S.E. Cupp, David Brooks, or even Bill Kristol (I agree with none of these people) seem to have genuine questions as to what the party actually represents at this point. Meanwhile more identity based (less philosophy based) conservatives are just fine such as Hannity or Limbaugh. Ultimately for them, it's about whipping the party and moving it. The platform itself is immaterial. It's also interesting because it means certain purely political positions become identified as "white" such as limited government, more emphasis on states rights, etc.

That means our traditional "battlegrounds" are going to shake up. Many of them have significantly white voting blocks which is going to sap Democrats traditional advantages in some states. That said, some traditionally "up for grabs" places like Florida and Virginia might be more safely Democrat than we realize. Even Texas if it doesn't flip, I'll very interested in what our polls look like this year.

[Gravekeeper]

Well, the problem Republicans face is that they continue to just double down over and over on being ever more white, racist, religious and socially conservative. Literally going against every major trend in America and its electorate.

Their platform is becoming ever increasingly more baffling ( coal is clean, porn is a national health crisis, anti-LGBT, give federal land to the states, etc etc ) alongside a candidate that really only has a single voting block target ( of awful people ). Rather than broaden their appeal they keep narrowing in more and more on a specific group.

Republican party loyalty is really the only thing the GOP has going for it right now and its losing even that by having Trump as its nominee.

And now he's added Pence ( who, frankly, is a shitlord ) which is like broad spectrum awful. Its negated what few weak justifications you could make for Trump. Before someone could at least say well at least he's not virulently anti-gay or anti-abortion. But Pence brings that to the table. Its broadening the ticket's appalling nature rather than tried to shore up Trump's many many weaknesses.

Plus Pence actually opposes Trump on some things ( though he's of course walking it back ).

Trump and his entire campaign really have no god damn idea what they're doing and the RNC has bred itself to be party loyal no matter what happens. So they can't even stand up to the collapse of their own party in face of such an obvious political shitshow.

Once the debates hit this is going to be spectacular. Trump has never been contrasted against another candidate like that. He won't share the spotlight with anyone and the GOP debates were a farce. A real debate against Hillary? Jesus.

I think both conventions are going to be quite interesting.

While I agree that the RNC is going to have a lot of potentially violent infighting, I wouldn't discount the possibility that nuts are going to be at the DNC too, even if they're the same folks who were in Cleveland the prior week. Plus, there are quite a few people on the democratic side who worship Bernie and absolutely despise Hilary. I don't think their presence would inspire violence, but they will be pretty vocal about their objections to the election, even after Bernie finally endorsed Hilary.

Bottom line, I will be praying for anyone who lives in Cleveland and Philadelphia for the next few weeks. I can't imagine being anywhere near the hoopla that's going to be dancing in the streets during that time.

The conventions always have protests and what not. There's nothing really special about the DNC this time around ( despite some berniebros claims to the contrary ) and the Philly site is well located. Its away from downtown and surrounded entirely by open parking lots.

The RNC though. You have anti-Trump protesters in the same area as a variety of militant and white supremacist groups in an open carry state. Where the police chief literally went on TV and begged people not to bring their guns. All in the wake of the Dallas shooting so the cops are even more on edge.

I mean god if anything remotely similar to Dallas happens or even the belief that something similar is happening? Cops with guns, people with guns the cops can't distinguish from an active shooter and a bunch of gun toting freedom types who have been dreaming of the day they can be the Good Guy With The Gun(tm).

If something goes wrong its going to go very, *very* wrong. ><

[mjr]

Literally going against every major trend in America and its electorate.

And most of those "trends" that you say most Republicans are going against are why this country is going down the crapper, in my not so humble opinion.

[Gravekeeper]

And most of those "trends" that you say most Republicans are going against are why this country is going down the crapper, in my not so humble opinion.

Er...you're saying the reason country is going down the crapper is because its becoming more secular, less white; less racist and less socially conservative?

You sure that's what you meant to say? -.-

[mjr]

Er...you're saying the reason country is going down the crapper is because its becoming more secular, less white; less racist and less socially conservative?

You sure that's what you meant to say? -.-

Mostly because it's becoming more secular and less socially conservative, yes.

Less racist is a good thing, IMHO, and "less white" doesn't bother me.

[D_Yeti_Esquire]

And most of those "trends" that you say most Republicans are going against are why this country is going down the crapper, in my not so humble opinion.

Honestly, the reason the country is having issues is that partisan gridlock has stopped us from doing what should be even nominal tasks like, raising debt ceilings so we can pay for debts we've already agreed to in appropriations. Or... never pushing through any major legislation without one side controlling both the executive and legislative. That's beyond absurd and both sides are complicit.

If people want to know why its bad, grab a mirror and try not to smile too much. Hell, after the Dallas Memorial I literally watched two sides of my Facebook feed pick a president and plaster what they liked about their speech. They then tarred the other guys. It's not the parties. It's the entirely correctable behavior of the electorate and the entirely fallacious belief that parties are a rooting interest rather than, you know.. a means to a governing apparatus.