Five Thirty-Eight election forecast

[mjr]

Good data here, also a breakdown by state.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

When to freak out about polls:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ing-new-polls/

That one was a good read, too.

[Estil]

As I already mentioned in another topic here, let me put this very simply.

Trump must get Ohio and either Florida or Pennsylvania to have any kind of realistic chance, otherwise it'll be another Clinton in the White House.

[D_Yeti_Esquire]

I am to some degree amazed how Missouri went from being the bellwether state, to a state so solidly Republican their vote isn't even in question. I'm sort of curious what demographic shift caused that because there definitely was one.

[Gravekeeper]

I am to some degree amazed how Missouri went from being the bellwether state, to a state so solidly Republican their vote isn't even in question. I'm sort of curious what demographic shift caused that because there definitely was one.

In fairness, 538 only has a single poll from Missouri to work with so far and its from March. I don't think we'll see any significant forecast changes until after the first debate.

[Rusty Shackleford]

As I already mentioned in another topic here, let me put this very simply.

Trump must get Ohio and either Florida or Pennsylvania to have any kind of realistic chance, otherwise it'll be another Clinton in the White House.

If that happens, then anyone born after HW Bush's inauguration will have had five presidents with only three last names. So, if she goes two terms, up to 35 years of their lives will be just three families being president.

[Estil]

More specifically, according to 270towin.com if Trump fails to get both PA and FL, Clinton would just need any one of the other swing states (even teensy little NH) to go over the top. If you go by the states since 2000, Clinton would just need all the states that've stayed blue every election since 2000 plus Florida.

So just from the Electoral map alone, Trump is clearly the underdog, which I'm sure is not something he's ever been called very often.

[Daskinor]

I been looking at some of the pre-release data (aka raw numbers) for some upcoming FL polls. Looks like Trump is averaging(unweighted) at 42% to Hillary's 47%.