The Iranian Elections

[AFPheonix]

I'm surprised no one's started a thread on this yet, it's pretty big news. The two main candidates in this election were incumbent Ahmenidijad and Mousavi. Mousavi entered the race late, but was very popular since he is at least slightly more moderate than Ahmenidijad and wants normalized relations with the west.
(Granted, he's no angel, he presided over some pretty bad crack-downs in the 80's)
Turnout for the election was 85%. Absolutely huge. Unfortunately, there's accusations of a rigged election, since it was called for Ahmenidijad in a landslide barely after the last polls closed. According to official reports he even won by more than 2-1 in areas that would historically gone to Mousavi due to ethnic and religious ties.

Here's some pics of the marches and riots going on now and over the weekend:
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/200..._election.html

This guy is a number cruncher and has some interesting analysis posted on his site: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Here's some BBC news on what's going on: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8099218.stm

An interesting development in all this is that while traditional media has been muzzled to a point (ABC, NBC and BBC reporters have had stuff confiscated from them or prevented from broadcasting), Twitter feeds have been bringing a lot of real time info and pics out to the world. Twitter seriously spanked CNN's coverage, they were about a day late and a dollar short on covering, although they're finally going now that there's live rounds being shot into crowds by the police.

Thoughts?

[lordlundar]

So far as the election itself goes, yes I do think there's something squirmy going on and Ahmenidijad did have a hand in it. Apart from the declaration of victory right as the polls closed, when he was running his press conferences, every time someone brought up the results being in question he either deflected the question or insulted the person asking. This is his standard M.O. when he's called out on his corruption.

To the riots, this was going to happen regardless of the results. The two sides hold enough distrust toward each other that no matter what the results were, one side would declare the other of some sort of fraud and the riots would start. The country is a powder keg and the fuse just reached the powder.

As far as the reporting, it seems to be the prime example of how the current media conglomerates are past their prime. The major networks failed to get on the ball when it was happening, are noticeable enough to be easily targeted and restricted (most journalists in the region report from at least a mile out of the city) and when they finally got down to it, they were downplaying it, probably out of fear for being hunted for telling the truth. As such, by the time they get to it, it's out of date and is inaccurate, just so they can stay there and be relevant. Meanwhile, the people on Twitter are getting the truth out, despite the efforts of the government restrictions and people are finding out how bad it really is, with no thanks to the journalists.

[AFPheonix]

To be fair, BBC was on the ball, and ABC and NBC tried, they just had their equipment taken away and were being threatened. Even El-Arabiya got shut down. Fox News, however, just had it as a side bar on their website last night, it got trumped by Letterman apologizing to Palin about something or another >.<

I just think it's hilarious that something that would normally be used to tell the world that you had pancakes for breakfast has turned out to be so incredibly instrumental in getting actual good info out.

Here's one feed if anyone's interested.

Here's another article that explains some of the intricacies of the politics involved. Pretty interesting, as I don't think Westerners take too much time to figure out the power structure over there. It seems to be far more complicated than it would appear at first glance.

And this is why I'm glad we don't have Mccain in office. I respect the man, but good lord, does he not understand that if we say much more than what Obama's said that it could be bad? Iranians already trust us as far as they could throw us and if there was even an appearance that the US is involved with one side or another, it would make that side absolutely radioactive. Hello John, remember '79? Ya know, that whole thing with the Shah? The decision to let stuff play out on their own with no interference from us is a good one.

[Boozy]

Jon Stewart really got into making fun of the networks this week for reporting based on Twitter feeds. It was a funny bit, but I don't agree with the criticism, to be honest. I like to see the media using new methods of reporting. It's harder for these totalitarian regimes to shut themselves off these days.

What is absolutely funny is watching these network news dinosaurs explain the concept of Twitter to other dinosaurs watching at home. Because let's face it: If you're fully aware of Twitter, you probably don't still get your news from TV.

[AFPheonix]

Considering CNN spent Friday and Saturday making fun of Twitter and not really covering what was going on, and then are only just now getting their act somewhat together, they deserve every scathing comment they get.

BBC still has reporters on the ground reporting, even though they're risking arrest for it. There's a news agency with some balls if you ask me.

[AdminAssistant]

Today CNN was talking to various people in Tehran via phone. I don't know how Friday and Saturday night were, though.

I know what Twitter is, but I still get my news by TV. I turn it on CNN and just leave it on while I do other things, if something peaks my interest I'll stop and watch it.

[AFPheonix]

Here's a filtered feed from Twitter of just #iranelection tags.

Typically I get my news from NPR radio. I rarely watch tv anymore. Usually if something big goes down there's a big thread that pops up on the Something Awful forums that usually has good up to date information.

[AFPheonix]

Grand Ayatollah Montazeri condemns the election results

[AFPheonix]

I don't know how many of you caught Khamanei's speech yesterday, but I hope to god he signed his own pinkslip with it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009...h-ali-khamenei

He's backing the election and Ahmadinijad. He tried cozying up to Rafsanjani, but I don't know if that will help him at all. He said that if the protesters come out again, that any of their own blood that is shed will be their fault. Way to blame the victim there, bucko. He's also dismissed the many compelling reasons why people think the election was stolen.
And hey British posters, you are now the great satan instead of the US! Aren't you excited? The Iranian ambassador to Britain also asked your minister of communications to stop the BBC from reporting "lies" about the protest. BBC responded by increasing the amount of satellite feed they have coming and going into the region.

Live blog with pics, tweets, and video from the riots today so far:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/

[Rapscallion]

And hey British posters, you are now the great satan instead of the US! Aren't you excited?

Not really. We've been bombed before by a better class of bastard.

Rapscallion

[AFPheonix]

A nerdy analysis of the vote by the Washington Post.

Although at this point, it's gone way beyond the vote or Mousavi. Shit's goin' down.

[Boozy]

Awesome article. Although we hardly needed the "smoking gun" that a random numbers analysis could provide. It's a foregone conclusion that the vote count was fraudulent.

[Slytovhand]

I wonder how a nerdy analysis would have seen the Florida election for Bush...

But, back on topic... things are looking interesting.... possibly not a good time to be living in 'interesting times'.

[AFPheonix]

Another independent review of the vote.

While I was not amused at the outcome of the elections in 2000 and 2004, I do think Bush won legitimately. Unfortunately, half of Americans really are that shortsighted. Constitutionally, the Electoral College voted him in. They don't have to pay attention to the popular vote and there had been precedence for that situation before.
I don't think the elections in Iran and the US are really all that similar. If Bush had won with 60% in West and East coast states, including his opponent's home states, then yeah, we'd have some similarities.

This video (NWS!) has been getting mirrored and reposted everywhere. A censored version even made CNN. It's become a rallying point and a potent symbol for protesters.

Protests continued yesterday and today, but information coming out is slowing to a trickle due to the government restricting Gmail, Hotmail, and Yahoo. Also, it told BBC it has 24 hours to get out, and it's also restricting satellite feeds.
Further, several relatives of power broker and former president Rafsanjani have been arrested. I suspect Khamenei is trying to keep him from working on the Panel Of Experts in Qom to get the Ayatollah deposed. I don't know if that will be effective, as Rafsanjani and Mousavi both are relics of the '79 revolution.

I hope everything goes well for Iranians. We are watching history unfold. Too bad those of us in the West are pretty much confined to watching.

[daleduke17]

Protests continued yesterday and today, but information coming out is slowing to a trickle due to the government restricting Gmail, Hotmail, and Yahoo. Also, it told BBC it has 24 hours to get out, and it's also restricting satellite feeds.

I hope they pull the fucking plug on international phone calls and the internet in Iran that way we aren't subjected to so called news reports from any person with a Twitter or Facebook account.

I hope everything goes well for Iranians. We are watching history unfold. Too bad those of us in the West are pretty much confined to watching.

Would you rather be there involved in the shit happening there? Let them protest. I just hope the USA isn't stupid enough to get involved there in ANY capacity. Military, Humanitarian, monetary, etc. No help from America for either party.