North Korea & Escalation

[FArchivist]

I'm hoping that this:

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea warned Monday that U.S.-South Korean cooperation could bring a nuclear war to the region, as the South began artillery drills amid lingering tension nearly three weeks after the North's deadly shelling of a South Korean island.

The South's naval live-fire drills are scheduled to run Monday through Friday at 27 sites. The regularly scheduled exercises are getting special attention following a North Korean artillery attack on front-line Yeonpyeong Island that killed two South Korean marines and two civilians.

The Nov. 23 artillery barrage, the North's first assault to target a civilian area since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, began after the North said South Korea first fired artillery toward its territorial waters. South Korea says it fired shells southward, not toward North Korea, as part of routine exercises.

is just posturing. If a war, period, breaks out on the peninsula Seoul will be destroyed and then there'll be no "maybe" on the prospect of a global Double-Dip. And if war breaks out in a week or two the casualties over a decade of war in both Iraq and Afghanistan will be equalled, full-stop. North Korea is not Iraq, it's not going to fold if such a war should begin immediately. While this war has never technically ended by international legal standards, North Korea's actions as of late have been a lot more paranoid and thuggish than usual. My opinion remains that it's to solidify Lil' Kim as the next ruler. Your thoughts?

[AdminAssistant]

My thoughts are that it's scary as hell and I *really* would not want to be in South Korea or Japan right now.

[lordlundar]

China's towing a very fine line right now by not condemning the actions that North Korea is taking (note, they are not supporting them either) and even though China is the current world economic powerhouse, if they allow a nuclear attack to commence, there is no way that they will get world support, and though economically strong, they can still get hammered if the other forces of the world decide to go after them. Essentially, the ball is in China's court and they're going to have to decide soon whether to back N. Korea again or to oppose them. They can't keep sitting on the sidelines.

As for Whether it's a bluff or not, I'm not sure either way. I've herd this threat before (heck, that threat has been going on since before I was born), but Kim Jong Il is looney enough to do it.

[blas87]

I wouldn't put anything past him.

[Greenday]

China has everything to lose and nothing to gain by back backing North Korea in an unprovoked attack. They are pissed at North Korea for this latest aggression.

This attack on a civilian population is a scary predecessor to what seems like inevitable war. Kim Jong II seems to want to get stuff done before he dies. America can't afford to get heavily involved in another war.

[Salted Grump]

The main problem is that, even if NK attacked, their only real advantage is the fact that practically Every NK citizen is, or has been in the Army, simply because the Army gets fed.

Technologically, however, NK has been stuck at the same basic level it's been at since the end of the Korean war, and has some rather.... antiquated ideas about combat. (One widely publicized, if anecdotal account was that, when told of Stealth-Capable aircraft, NK commanders were reputed to have said 'We can turn up the gain on our radar; we've been detecting them for years')

And, while Quantity is a Quality all its own, Quality often beats Quantity. (At least, until Quality runs out of ammo; Look at the battle of Stalingrad, as popularized in the movie 'Enemy at the Gates' for a good idea of what NK doctrine would look like, barring the nuclear option.)

Hopefully, It's just sabre-rattling. Less optimistically, and with the knowledge that Kim Jong Il is getting up there in years, as well as supposedly suffering from a variety of illnesses, there's a very good chance that by April 2011 Korea will, once again be embroiled in major conflict that will end with the total annexation of one or the other.

[Teysa]

It wouldn't surprise me all that much if China did end up fully supporting North Korea. After all, it tends to do the opposite of whatever the rest of the world, or at least the West, expects.

[lordlundar]

It depends on who starts the major shooting war first. China is currently sitting on the fence, because their economic advantage comes from other countries, most of which condemns N. Korea's actions.

If they back N. Korea if they start it, then all the business there will pull out or shut down to avoid political backlash, which will put China back to third world status, a hell of a blow with the rest of the world breathing down their necks and their only ally being a lunatic that started the mess.

Alternatively, if S. Korea starts it, then China can feel justified in backing N. Korea as it's a defensive action, and S. Korea loses a lot of it's support. Right now, China is hoping that's what will happen, because it's puts them in the strongest approach politically.

Either way, at this point should it devolve to a shooting match, there will no longer be any restoring the 38th parallel. It's going to be all or nothing. And it's all in the hands of someone who worldwide is not regarded as mentally stable.

[daleduke17]

And yet another war the US should stay out of. But, no, the US is going to get involved (war #4? 5?), blow the hell out of one side, then send in aid and rebuild their military.

[AdminAssistant]

South Korea and Japan are some of our biggest allies in Asia. Besides, it is to pretty much everyone's benefit for North Korea to no longer exist.