Originally posted by Panacea
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Regardless of what anyone thinks of the guy, he's the incumbent, and as any high school government teacher will tell you, incumbents almost always have an advantage in elections. It's true that a good portion of the "Obamania" of 2008 and 2009 has dwindled down, but he's still the incumbent.
If we look back at previous incumbent presidents who've been defeated, we'll see that he was usually wildly unpopular or was up against a really good campaigner or some combination of those two things.
Take 1980, for example. Jimmy Carter had become unpopular for a number of reasons AND he was up against a really good campaigner (Reagan).
In 1992, George H.W. Bush's ratings had gone down because of the early 90s recession. Plus, Clinton was a pretty good campaigner, too.
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