Gay Marriage & SCOTUS - On Like Donkey Kong

[Greenday]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8B617420121207

It's going down people. We are finally getting passed this shit and going to fight over stuff that makes sense to argue about. GO SCOTUS!

[Hyena Dandy]

I can only hope so.

[HYHYBT]

What I wonder (aside from the outcome of the whole thing, of course) is what would happen if they strike down DOMA (3) without ruling that marriage is a right everywhere. Specifically, what would happen with people who live in a state that doesn't recognize gay marriages, but who wed in a state that does. Would they be in the reverse position of people in Iowa and so forth now, so that their marriages would be recognized by the federal government but not by the state, or would they have to *live* in a marriage state in order to get federal benefits?

[s_stabeler]

DOMA is almost certainly doomed given Obama has said the federal government won't defend it.

As for what will happen if the SCOTUS doesn't explicitly say gay people can marry, I'm guessing we get the situation where people can be recognised as married by the federal government and not by the state they live in.

Personally, i think the Prop 8 case will be the more important as far as actually recognizing gay people can marry; I can't see an argument for declaring Prop 8 unconstitutional without also declaring gay people can marry. If the SCOTUS declares gay people can marry, states have no choice.

[HYHYBT]

On Prop 8, the appeals court ruled based on the idea you can't take away rights once given. The Supreme Court couls simply agree with that.

The government *is* defending DOMA. The Justice Department isn't, so the House of Representatives hired outside help, but it's still the federal government. Unless, of course, the court says Congress has no standing... but then, as with the other one, why take the case at all?

[Panacea]

DOMA is almost certainly doomed given Obama has said the federal government won't defend it.

Yes, and no. It won't help that the Justice Department is not defending DOMA; they have much greater resources. The House is defending it, and they don't have those resources. It will look funny that only part of Congress is defending the law; I can't wait to see how they respond to questions on why the Senate isn't in this with them.

As for what will happen if the SCOTUS doesn't explicitly say gay people can marry, I'm guessing we get the situation where people can be recognised as married by the federal government and not by the state they live in.

Doubtful. More than likely, the ruling will be that the feds have to recognize the marriage if their state of residency recognizes the marriage, but not if they move to a state where it is illegal.

Personally, i think the Prop 8 case will be the more important as far as actually recognizing gay people can marry; I can't see an argument for declaring Prop 8 unconstitutional without also declaring gay people can marry. If the SCOTUS declares gay people can marry, states have no choice.

I think you're being overly optimistic. We have a conservative majority on the court right now. Kennedy, the swing vote, will likely vote with the conservatives on gay marriage.

I think the decision will be narrow. We're not going to get a federal right to gay marriage out of either case. The Prop 8 case, at best, will apply to California alone. The DOMA case will extend federal benefits only if the state recognizes gay marriage.

The government *is* defending DOMA. The Justice Department isn't, so the House of Representatives hired outside help, but it's still the federal government. Unless, of course, the court says Congress has no standing... but then, as with the other one, why take the case at all?

There were 10 possible cases before the SCOTUS. They had to deal with the issue; it just isn't going away.

Since the DOMA case and the Prop 8 case were decided in favor of the plaintiffs, to not hear them means the lower court rulings stand. Which means Prop 8 would fail, and the Feds would have to recognize gay marriage. The SCOTUS really had no choice but to take those cases.

[Mr. Anubite]

On Prop 8, the appeals court ruled based on the idea you can't take away rights once given. The Supreme Court couls simply agree with that.

This is my biggest fear. I'm also afraid that they'll say DOMA is a 10th Amendment violation, and then it will go straight back to the states, where over 30 of them have "Marriage Amendments" banning same-sex marriage.

[Panacea]

This is my biggest fear. I'm also afraid that they'll say DOMA is a 10th Amendment violation, and then it will go straight back to the states, where over 30 of them have "Marriage Amendments" banning same-sex marriage.

I'm not too worried about that. More and more states are adopting gay marriage laws. I think the gay marriage bans will turn around and drop like flies in the next few years. Gay marriage is gaining acceptance, and the bans are the last gasp of the ultra con crowd against the gay community. It make take awhile for the bans to go away, but as more people move into conservative states from liberal states, the bans will start to disappear.

[Greenday]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...?utm_hp_ref=tw

Well, I guess we know how Scalia is going to vote. What a scumbag.

[smileyeagle1021]

I'm not too worried about that. More and more states are adopting gay marriage laws. I think the gay marriage bans will turn around and drop like flies in the next few years. Gay marriage is gaining acceptance, and the bans are the last gasp of the ultra con crowd against the gay community. It make take awhile for the bans to go away, but as more people move into conservative states from liberal states, the bans will start to disappear.

I'm glad you're not worried. For those of us who live in the ultra con states, there is no way in hell, short of every liberal in California relocating to a different red state each election, that marriage equality will become a reality without a supreme court ruling... and even then, states like Utah will secede from the Union, even if not peacefully, before accepting LGBT equality.

[HYHYBT]

The House is defending it, and they don't have those resources.

What resources, exactly, does the House not have that it can't duplicate and which would be useful in this instance?

Kennedy, the swing vote, will likely vote with the conservatives on gay marriage.

Why do you think that?

As for state bans falling... we still have at least one (Indiana) trying to implement one at the amendment level, and of the states that have those already, how many are even close to where they'd repeal them unless forced? Georgia certainly wouldn't. Even though it's fallen considerably since our amendment passed in 2004, I believe 2/3 of the population still supports it... and even were it to fall below 50, that wouldn't change who people elect to the legislature unless those running were fool enough to make it a central campaign issue.

It would happen eventually, but not anytime soon.

(The idea that states would secede over this one issue, though... why would it come to that?)

[Mr. Anubite]

I'm not too worried about that. More and more states are adopting gay marriage laws. I think the gay marriage bans will turn around and drop like flies in the next few years. Gay marriage is gaining acceptance, and the bans are the last gasp of the ultra con crowd against the gay community. It make take awhile for the bans to go away, but as more people move into conservative states from liberal states, the bans will start to disappear.

I hope you're right. I live in Georgia, and while I will almost certainly move after I receive my degree, the ultraconservative attitudes of many people here bothers me. These people won't be voting for same-sex marriage anytime soon.

[smileyeagle1021]

HYHBT, there are states in this country, Utah is one of them, where the majority of the population, and a supermajority of their legislature, honestly, deep down to the bottom of their soul, believe that allowing marriage equality will invite God's wrath. So it's not much of a stretch to say that they will risk the damage that attempting secession will cause, than risk God's wrath for tolerating homosexuality.

[Nekojin]

I thought God shelved all that Wrath stuff back when he turned the reins over to his kid?

[crashhelmet]

It's on hiatus until the Apocalypse, where everything bottled up is released in 7 stages