North Korea

[LewisLegion]

Japan is a US ally. If you attack or threaten to attack a US ally the US becomes directly involved...that's the whole point of being or having an ally. The US can't just 'stay out of it' without breaking several treaties and losing several allies.

[crashhelmet]

I'm pretty sure there're thousands of young men and women that do care, and are prepared for whatever might cook off.

Japan is by far one of my favorite places in the world. I lived in Iwakuni for 2 years as a kid and have been back to the Island Empire several times for both business and pleasure. If they nuked Tokyo, I'd beat the crap out of every military doctor until they revoked my 4-F classification.

[lordlundar]

Un's baiting, that's all. China, despite disapproving of Un's actions, is under a mutual defense treaty with NK. This means that if NK is ever attacked, China must aid and assist NK. The treaty does not extend to aggressive actions on NK's part however, so if NK does attack first China can say "sucks to be you" and walk off.

Un knows this so he's baiting SK, the US and their allies into attacking first so China will be forced to get involved on NK's behalf. It's nothing new really and has been happening since the cease fire was signed. it's just Un is a fresh face, really bad at the baiting, and the media exposure is more global and heavily politicized with emotions that have not been seen since 1990. The media is making it out to be "stop da ebul commies" while for those actually in the area it's business as usual.

[Ginger Tea]

That Tommy Lee Jones photo (from iir no country for old men) that has him holding the paper and looking to one side.
That's the visual image I had with my other post, probably with a caption like "Tuesday already?"

[linguist]

And of course, the USA is going to be jumping in to fuck with North Korea when/if they decide to blow up Tokyo (or elsewhere). Why can't the US just stay the fuck out of an issue that is not theirs. If Kim Jong Un decides to bomb a US territory/base/operation/state, then, yes, give him both barrels. Otherwise, stay out. Let's finish one war before starting another, especially since South Korea has other "Big Brothers" ready to play.

The US Navy has a base at Yokosuka, less than 50 miles from Tokyo. If Tokyo is hit with a nuke, US military forces will be affected, and an attack on Tokyo would essentially be an attack on the US.

[ExRetailDrone]

Un's baiting, that's all. China, despite disapproving of Un's actions, is under a mutual defense treaty with NK. This means that if NK is ever attacked, China must aid and assist NK. The treaty does not extend to aggressive actions on NK's part however, so if NK does attack first China can say "sucks to be you" and walk off.

Un knows this so he's baiting SK, the US and their allies into attacking first so China will be forced to get involved on NK's behalf. It's nothing new really and has been happening since the cease fire was signed. it's just Un is a fresh face, really bad at the baiting, and the media exposure is more global and heavily politicized with emotions that have not been seen since 1990. The media is making it out to be "stop da ebul commies" while for those actually in the area it's business as usual.

This is pretty much how I see things, too. I'm currently living over here, and I have heard very little from any of my Korean co-workers about stuff with the North. I think they're more worried that I might walk out and head home in the middle of my contract, or not renew my contract in August, since there have been stories about some foreign teachers just up and leaving with no warning because of this. I have seen no panic, no drills, nothing. It's just business as usual.

I'm honestly, at this point, more worried that the US will do something stupid because of pressure from citizens after all this fear-mongering in the media. The big news stations are making it sound some days like nukes have already been launched and are on a collision course with Seoul.

Frankly, I think that Kim Jung-eun is trying to show his people and his military personnel that even though he's young, he can do this job just as well as his father and grandfather could. The Korean culture is all about respecting and listening to the elders as they are more life-experienced and wise. Kim Jung-eun doesn't have the age to go with his position in such a heavily Confucian society. I really don't think it's anything more than sabre rattling. Unless the US decides to do what they have shown they do too much of, and start shit when they shouldn't be getting involved >.<

[HYHYBT]

Japan is a US ally. If you attack or threaten to attack a US ally the US becomes directly involved...that's the whole point of being or having an ally. The US can't just 'stay out of it' without breaking several treaties and losing several allies.

Especially Japan. Unless something's changed recently (or I'm totally misremembering history class) that we will defend Japan and that they have only a token military of their own is part of the treaty ending WWII. You CAN'T make a deal like that and then, when they're actually threatened, turn around and tell them to fend for themselves. If you want to go that route, there has to be a substantial transition period first.

[daleduke17]

See, I didn't know of all of the treaty business going on between the US and South Korea/Japan. Thank you for enlightening me on it.

[Ginger Tea]

As long as the American government keeps passive it should blow over till the next time Un want's to wave his willy in public, having an itchy finger is the worst thing the President (any not just Obama) can have, or high ranking military officials.

This is kinda like having a face off where one side has guns drawn in defence and the other might only have a machette but makes antagonising movements hoping the other side flnches and pulls the trigger.

I was too young to really feel the effects of the cold war, but we avoided that and as long as we don't do anything preemptive this I hope should just blow over and be forgotten about within months.

[Panacea]

If it comes to it and the US stays out and China needs help, tell them to wipe our debt to them clean and then the US can come play.

We don't owe China any money in the sense of a "debt." We didn't borrow any money from them.

You are probably referring to US Treasuries, which are bonds. While it is a type of debt, it is essentially an IOU with interest. US Treasuries make up an important part of the world economy and provide stability when economic times get rough. For China to "forgive" that debt (which much of it is in private Chinese hands as much as the Chinese government) would undermine the validity of our bonds and the markets. Best not to mess with that for political hyperbole.

We kind of have treaties to step in should Kim Jong decides to mess with his two primary targets. So yeah...staying out's not an option there.

Right in one. That's why we still have troops there.

Un's baiting, that's all. China, despite disapproving of Un's actions, is under a mutual defense treaty with NK. This means that if NK is ever attacked, China must aid and assist NK. The treaty does not extend to aggressive actions on NK's part however, so if NK does attack first China can say "sucks to be you" and walk off.

China won't do that. It's in their best interest to have North Korea as a "buffer" state, which is why they've supported the Kim dynasty since the end of WWII. If Kim Jong Un proves unable to provide that stability, China will just invade and take over the country. DPRK's military can't sustain a conventional war, and the people are so dispirited they won't put up a fight. If anything, Chinese rule might be to their benefit.

The UN has no balls and won't intervene, and Obama won't blow political capital with a war with China that it cannot win. The Chinese will make the South Koreans (and the Japanese) nervous, but no one will be able to do anything about it.

China, for its part, would invade only as a last resort. They like having Kim on their borders, and aren't ready for broader conflicts with Japan and the US right now. They're too busy making money. But that's what would happen if an open war broke out, because the US would beat the pants off Kim even in our current condition.

[s_stabeler]

I wouldn't be so sure Panacea. The Chinese are pretty cross at Kim-Jong-Un - During the eras of Kim-Il-Sung and Kim-Jong-Il there was regular high-level contact between the Chinese and the Koreans. That has disappeared. China has conducted whta look suspiciously like air-raid drills in Hunchun, and there are reports of military excercises near NK in China... I get the feeling that China is preparing for possible war with North Korea.

[Kheldarson]

Maybe not war, but I think they are prepared to control NK.

[Greenday]

China, for its part, would invade only as a last resort. They like having Kim on their borders

I kinda doubt this, but if you meant that they prefer having Kim Jong-Un next to them over America or South Korea, I'd buy that.

But going to war would be bad for China so it's in China's best interests that it doesn't come down to giving up the buffer state that draws attention away from themselves or fighting against major trade partners.

[bara]

Well.. lets say something does happen. China helps North Korea (Im talking war here), do you think those barges from Chinese sweatshops are going to be admitted? Possibly after they are searched, but the cash flow would almost certainly stop. It would be a nasty situation all around.

[mikoyan29]

I think we are going to find out if the Missile Defense system on our Aegis Cruisers and Destroyers was worth all the money we put into them. Given the practice run with the Chinese satelite a few years ago, I'm going to guess that they will work just fine.

As far as the next step...I have no idea.