The New Plan is the Old Plan

[Panacea]

So, since the Senate seems to be working towards a compromise that would reopen the government, the House (now back from its two day vacation) GOP has decided to come up with a plan of its own.

It seems to be the same old tired plan. Short term reopen in exchange for more cuts and changes to Obamacare.

They don't get it.

[mikoyan29]

Well they aren't getting impacted that much. What's a few pissed off constituents and e-mails that get read by staffers....

[s_stabeler]

to be fair, at least defunding the ACA completely is off the table. That is definitely progress. Still, they have what? two days to reach an agreement and pass legislation? this is going to be tough, and [I] figure it's gong to come down to if the House Republicans care more about avoiding a primary challenge or more about avoiding default. (and it is looming to me like the Tea Party are going to launch primary challenges anyway)

[smileyeagle1021]

Makes you wonder what they think their chances are if there is a default?
Yes, they might survive primaries that way, but no chance in hell of making it through the general. I'd rather take my chances in the primary... it will be a lot easier to convince a rabble of incoherent tea party types that they did what had to be done and how disgusted they are with being forced into that position blah blah blah than facing the more moderate general electorate and convincing them it was right to destroy the nation's credit rating and drag down the economy with it.

[s_stabeler]

To be honest, I'm wondering if the moderate republicans would be better off splitting off to form their own party. Yes, they would lose the Tea Party votes, but might well be able to swing some of the moderates. If nothing else, it would provide the bets chance yet of breaking the current two-party system. (I actually think the Speaker should be more like the UK equivalent- you don't have a Labour Speaker, or a Conservative Speaker, they are legally forced to be impartial ( it is a convention that nobody runs against the Speaker in General Elections)

[mikoyan29]

Not only is this bad for the country in the fiscal way. It's also bad for the country in a political way. They've now set the precedent that they can use the budget as a weapon to get their way on things they don't like. could you imagine the uproar if the Democrats had tied the Iraq vote to the debt ceiling or budget? So now we have this as well.

And even if the debt ceiling is resolved...it's only resolved for the short term. And if this leads China and the EU to pull the world off the dollar, that would spell trouble for us.

[Daskinor]

The house republicans simply have no way of being able to function.

One of the major reasons budgetary bills haven't come out yet is because they cant decide on what to cut. One faction wants to cut everything but defense. Others want to reign in some spending, but completely cutting out food stamps will screw them over next election. Then there is pork spending. Some of that can be good, pork gets us airports and infrastructure improvements, and many other things. Pork also gets bills agreed on and finalized. Tea party say no pork, not never, and bills suddenly become very hard to agree upon.

Then there is the fear rhetoric. Using fear to sell a political agenda demands results. Saying you will stop the ACA so grandma does not go up against the death panels, requires a result. That's why they had 43 repeal votes so everyone can be on record voting against the ACA X number of times.

But all of this is the symptom of a greater issue. The republican party as a whole is dying. Demographic shifts are all going against them. Their core constituency is dying off, they are not picking up near enough of the youth vote and minorities rally against them. There stance on gays is becoming a liability. They been losing ground on the pro-life fight every year to the don't care side of that debate. They have an uphill battle for the presidency due to the Electoral College. And Texas is about to go purple, projected to be blue by 2020 by some. With current trends an electoral deficit they can not hope to overcome.

With how the primary's work, the Republicans get stuck with people voted in using fear as a motivator. Fear of all the forces working against the republicans. So instead of working to fix their demographic problems, they work to rally up more old white guys to vote for them, something that is in no way sustainable.

[Panacea]

Well they aren't getting impacted that much. What's a few pissed off constituents and e-mails that get read by staffers....

We'll see what happens in 2014. I predict a lot of tea party types will be out of Congress (not all, Ted Cruz will be with us for awhile), and the Democrats will retake control of Congress for Obama's last two years.

Clinton will win the White House in 2016.

To be honest, I'm wondering if the moderate republicans would be better off splitting off to form their own party. Yes, they would lose the Tea Party votes, but might well be able to swing some of the moderates. If nothing else, it would provide the bets chance yet of breaking the current two-party system. (I actually think the Speaker should be more like the UK equivalent- you don't have a Labour Speaker, or a Conservative Speaker, they are legally forced to be impartial ( it is a convention that nobody runs against the Speaker in General Elections)

Moderate Republicans can't win against Democrats without a large enough base; they wouldn't be distinguishable enough. I think they'll try to expel the Tea Party and fail. The GOP will have to completely reinvent itself, and it will take at least 10 years.

[Daskinor]

I just read this tidbit, I hope its not true.

Report: House GOP Considers Passing Bill, Then Leaving Town

[Rapscallion]

But all of this is the symptom of a greater issue. The republican party as a whole is dying. Demographic shifts are all going against them. Their core constituency is dying off, they are not picking up near enough of the youth vote and minorities rally against them. There stance on gays is becoming a liability. They been losing ground on the pro-life fight every year to the don't care side of that debate. They have an uphill battle for the presidency due to the Electoral College. And Texas is about to go purple, projected to be blue by 2020 by some. With current trends an electoral deficit they can not hope to overcome.

One thing to consider. Young people are more left-thinking than old people. Young people become old people, and whilst there's no absolute guarantee, there's a shift to the right in thought patterns and attitudes as someone gets older.

I'm creaking and groaning when I get out of bed. I could see my taxes going to people who've not earned them, or have them spent on me as I start to need them more - that sort of thing.

Going to be more rich old white men.

Rapscalion

[Greenday]

Looks like the Republicans backed down on more of the anti-ACA crap. Hopefully this deal can get pushed through.

[fireheart17]

They've now set the precedent that they can use the budget as a weapon to get their way on things they don't like. could you imagine the uproar if the Democrats had tied the Iraq vote to the debt ceiling or budget? So now we have this as well.

Sounds like something down here.

Basically under the previous Aussie government, a carbon tax was introduced, but was applied only to the biggest polluters. Despite the lies, it only affected shopping a tiny bit. (the lie? "We won't introduce a carbon tax under our government") And by tiny bit? The average grocery shop went up by $1.

Now we have a new government in power and the PM wants to abolish said tax. Not so much an issue in itself. However, the opposition party (the party that actually introduced said carbon tax and did more in their six years than the government BEFORE them) said they'll stand against it. Given that said opposition party also holds a slight majority in the senate (where bills go before they get the OK), they've said they'll block any attempts.

The result? The current PM is threatening a double dissolution if things don't go his way. Basically that would result in all of the spots in BOTH houses going up for election. Normally we vote for our own electoral district plus half the senate seats. If a double dissolution is in effect, ALL the seats go up for contention and we have to vote for however many seats we are allocated per state (I do believe that it's 12 seats per state plus two for each of the territories, normally we vote for 6 seats per state and 1 seat per territory).

[Nyoibo]

Pfft, Abbott will never call a double dissolution, you get way more minor parties in the senate and it will only weaken the coalition governments position

[fireheart17]

Pfft, Abbott will never call a double dissolution, you get way more minor parties in the senate and it will only weaken the coalition governments position

Since when have politicians been smart?!

Also to clarify what he means: basically in the Aussie senate, you need to meet a quota of votes in order to win a seat. The quota is something like 15% of votes. For a double dissolution vote, that goes down to 7.5%.

[Panacea]

One thing to consider. Young people are more left-thinking than old people. Young people become old people, and whilst there's no absolute guarantee, there's a shift to the right in thought patterns and attitudes as someone gets older.

I'm creaking and groaning when I get out of bed. I could see my taxes going to people who've not earned them, or have them spent on me as I start to need them more - that sort of thing.

Going to be more rich old white men.

Rapscalion

Funny, I've gone the other way as I've gotten older. I was very conservative when I was in my 20's, now I've drifted more to the left (though I'm really still middle of the road on most issues).