Canadian Election Post Mortem

[the_std]

Well, I for one am glad it's over, as this seemed to be a uniquely hateful and Americanized campaign, but I'm also unsure of how I feel about the outcome. Canadians seem to be stuck oscillating between Liberal and Conservative governments, with continuous promises of reform and change that never quite seem to manifest. So the Liberals, while hopefully a welcome breath of fresh air after the departure of the Conservatives, may not be as great an alternative as others might have been.

I guess that all we can hope for this time is that the changes they make, and the promises they keep, will result in a net benefit for Canadians.

What's your take?

[Greenday]

Same crap America deals with.

[the_std]

Green Day, the difference is that we have, in theory, three major political parties, so it shouldn't be an automatic dichotomy. The NDP was even the Opposition in the last government, so they ought to have stood a chance.

[Crazedclerkthe2nd]

Green Day, the difference is that we have, in theory, three major political parties, so it shouldn't be an automatic dichotomy. The NDP was even the Opposition in the last government, so they ought to have stood a chance.

They were in fact out in front in early polling. I'm not quite sure what happened. Either those who said in the polling they'd vote NDP didn't actually go out and do it or perhaps the NDP just got a little too far left for its own good and the Liberals seemed a more reasonable alternative.

In fact, the Liberals were the ONLY party that came out of this election stronger than when they went in.

[Jetfire]

This was a major ABH vote this time around, and a lot of people looked at it and seemed to vote strategically.

Overall results seem to be that more Canadians did vote (67% of eligible voters, up from 65% last time) and most of them went red.

I suspect most people didn't expect to see a majority come about, but at least as far as majorities go, it's spread out across the country. The Maritimes are pure red for the first time ever which might give us more clout than we're used to; but there is a Liberal MP in every major city of the country (save Victoria, Saskatoon and Windsor, who have NDP at least), and Grits in every province.

The next few months will be very telling in any case. I *really* hope that Justin will follow up on his electoral reform promise; that would help with the multiparty system we have here.

On the one hand, since he does have a majority, the pressure to reform the FPTP system is a lot less.

On the other hand, everyone can tell this was a bit of an aberration; 2019 we should see things go back to normal, which if nothing changes, will be NDP and Liberal splitting and Tory running through the middle.

That *should* encourage the LIberals to do the reform regardless (since they will still benefit in normal times); but it will be hard to tell what will come about.

In any case, watching the results was amazing. Especially when Atlantic Canada went completely red. Everyone was obviously completely stunned. My parents live in the Tobique-Mactaquac riding, and I had literally just gotten off the phone with her, taunting her for being in the only Tory riding, when first St John's East flipped, and then T-M flipped. Watching the polling stations come in and seeing T-M (and Fundy Royal's) numbers keep flipping certainly kept things exciting.

[cindybubbles]

When Stephen Harper stepped down as the PC leader, it made the election victory even sweeter for me. I didn't like the fact that he took down the long-gun registry, but I do hope that Justin Trudeau follows up on his promises.

[NecCat]

but I do hope that Justin Trudeau follows up on his promises.

I've always felt that the liberals and the conservatives were so perfectly opposite to each other. The liberals promise to do a lot of good things, get into power, and proceed to do nothing at all. The conservatives promise to do a lot of wacky things, get into power, and proceed to actually do them. And no matter who wins, every time we all watch stunned!

I would like to say that I found it highly amusing that when I went to vote there was a candidate listed with 'Pirate' written next to his name. I have no idea if that is a political party, or dude just thinks he is a pirate, but I found out this morning he got more than 100 votes in my area. Good for him, must get out a lot, I'm sure I don't know that many people.

[mjr]

Americanized campaign

Ha...you really have no idea. Politicians here in the U.S. could make Mickey Mouse look bad.

[Gravekeeper]

Either those who said in the polling they'd vote NDP didn't actually go out and do it or perhaps the NDP just got a little too far left for its own good and the Liberals seemed a more reasonable alternative.

No, it was Mulcair for the most part combined with a sort of muddling campaign with no clear objective. The NDP started to really bleed out after the Munk debate. Where Mulcair got into personal attacks on Trudeau and Harper. Canadians don't like that sort of shit ( the audience literally groaned during the debate at Mulcair ). He also made it fairly clear the NDP wouldn't exactly work with the Liberals.

So with a leader no one really likes ( Guy has the charisma of toast ), some ugly politics and a party no one believed could form a majority they bled out to the Liberals. Those seats were the NDP's to lose and they lost em.

[Hyena Dandy]

The Liberals and NDP have always been in a weird little equilibrium. They are more similar than I think they want to admit, so they'll trade voters more than either of them would with Conservatives.

My feeling about it is that the NDP failed because Mulcair and Harper were very much cut from the same mold, just different sides. Trudeau was a little vague on a lot of things, but was able to in part run as an alternative. Which I think might explain why he succeeded despite the fact that if you were to look at specific policies instead of leaders or parties, he should have come behind either of them. I suspect this is similar to how specific parts of Democratic platforms regularly poll highly in Conservative areas, and yet the Republicans still win on the whole.

[Gravekeeper]

The Liberals and NDP have always been in a weird little equilibrium. They are more similar than I think they want to admit, so they'll trade voters more than either of them would with Conservatives.

Yeah, I think if Muclair had not been a dick and shown more willingness to work with the Liberals they might not have lost as many seats. Seeing as they align on a number of issues. Anyone who was on the fence between NDP and Liberal prior to the debate likely swung Liberal as the better bet for beating the Conservatives and getting a majority. Some people likely would have been happy with a minority Liberal that needed to rely on the NDP for a majority. But Muclair scratched that hope.

The NDP is normally sort of an odd "safe" vote for when you don't want to vote for the Liberals but can't stand the Conservatives. But if Muclair muddied that impression people would swing away from the NDP to a surer bet on the Liberals. Me thinks, anyhow.