Population Control

[Gravekeeper]

Here's a meaty one: How the Hell do we avoid farkin' ourselves into the apocolypse? Now that our population has doubled to the 7 billion mark in a mere 50ish years and the Duggar's are welcoming their 20th kid into the tragic freakshow that is their family. How exactly do we steer the car away from the cliff? At our current rate of expansion, we will likely double it again just over another 50 years. Which, frankly, neither our infrastructure or resources can handle.

Its a three fold problem:

Number 1: Developing countries that lack birth control due to a lack of access or restriction to access by the country itself. This is theorhetically addressable.

Number 2: Developed countries where having as many damn kids as you want is considered a right that its unlikely people will give it up without losing their minds. Especially anyone in the category of "Dur, we had sex and now there's a baby, it must be God's will!". Developed countries that take their freedoms for granted will likely be incapable of taking any measures to avert a disaster if it means infringing on anyone's rights.

Number 3: Our inability as a species to view any issue outside of our little monkey sphere combined with our overall ignorance as to our own resource consumption. We think everything we have and can get is effectively infinite and will always be there. Essentially we've been spoiled by industrialization.

So you've got 50 years to fix it: What do you do? And no, you can't call in a meteor strike. Though it would it would probably help. It is also true that the situation will resolve itself one way or another. The moment resources stop making it into our grubby paws at an acceptable rate, the killing and dying will start. But we need to avoid that scenario if at all possible.

[draco664]

Believe it or not, this is a problem that is going to go away.

Have a look at the birth rate averages for different continents.

For a stable population, the birth rates need to be 2.0 children per mature woman. That graph, while missing North America, shows that world-wide birth rates are fast approaching that stable 2.0 mark. If Africa's population growth can be controlled with contraceptives, increases in standard of living and wealth, then within 20 years the world's population of humans will begin to decline.

We're going to hit 8 billion within a decade, and are likely to touch 9, but we wont reach 10. And the faster Africa gets pulled into line with the rest of the world, the faster the population will slow.

[Rapscallion]

I think the main control in Africa is going to be generational.

The UK (and other countries) have seen immigration from third world countries of people who by necessity had large families. With the infant mortality rates over there, attrition of descendants is pretty nasty.

The first wave of immigrants tended to have large families as that was how things were done. The next generation realised that of the seven brothers and sisters, all or almost all were fit and healthy and tended towards the usual two to three children of their own.

I think the best control is actually decent healthcare followed by family planning education.

It's not just Africa, though. Sub-Saharan Africa is losing generations due to AIDS, so that's slowing it down somewhat. China has a pretty brutal attitude to the number of children you can create. India's near enough standing room only - for a small (relatively speaking) subcontinent they have about a billion people alone from memory.

The quiverful movement is thankfully fairly minor in terms of part of the population. I'm also seeing quite a number of my age group not overly interested in breeding - no idea how that compares to other generations.

Rapscallion

[Boozy]

Believe it or not, this is a problem that is going to go away.

I agree, and thank you for sharing the link and information.

I have no idea why the internet is obsessed with overpopulation as some sort of cataclysmic disaster waiting to befall the human race. Misanthropy, maybe.

[siead_lietrathua]

i dont think birthratwe is the whole problem in populstion either. it used to be people commonly died between 60-70. now its 80-90+ with modern medicine etc. so its not jsut too many people being born, its also not enough dying to offset the birthrate.
(i'm aware this makes me sound horrible but its true)

[Rapscallion]

Longer birthrate is being cited as a cause for concern in that the UK, for example, is having to allow more immigration to make up for the lower birthrate, as there are fewer younger people to provide (fiscally or physically) for the growing numbers of older people.

Rapscallion

[Gravekeeper]

I have no idea why the internet is obsessed with overpopulation as some sort of cataclysmic disaster waiting to befall the human race. Misanthropy, maybe.

UN studies posit 3 possible projected scenarios based on the different studies they have done. Two of them aren't too bad, one fits with Draco's graph. Basically, they all involve hitting around 9-10 billion, then either tapering off into decline and bottoming out at 2.6 billion ( a different problem by itself ), stabilizing around 9-10 or increasing to 36 billion over the next couple hundred years. That is an oh shit scenario and would in effect end in cataclysmic disaster, yes. We would stabilize afterwards, sure, but a lot of people would die of unnatural causes to make it happen. Mainly starvation, lack of water and disease. It would not be an immediate apocolypse sure, but rather a slow, unpleasant crisis that would take years to resolve at a high cost in life.

[Rageaholic]

I think a lot of the problem stems from religion discouraging birth control and encouraging parents to "go forth and multiply".

[Rapscallion]

Back in the day that most religions formed, parents needed large numbers of children due to crappy healthcare compared to the western world today. Also, what religious leader wouldn't want more followers?

Rapscallion

[Evandril]

What makes me nervous is, in general, the smarter people tend to limit their families to 2-3 kids at most, while the people not smart enough to figure out birth control spawn like crazy. Evolution has the built in assumption that the 'best' survive...So what is this going to do to our overall intelligence as a race?

[Rapscallion]

Idiocracy.

Rapscallion

[Gravekeeper]

Back in the day that most religions formed, parents needed large numbers of children due to crappy healthcare compared to the western world today.

This still holds true in Africa, like you said. The birthrate there is the highest in the world. 6-8 kids per depending on the region. They'll be a population explosion there if the worst regions begin to stabilize and gain access to better health care. It'll be hard to break the habit for them.

Then there's the skewing of gender ratios in eastern Asian countries due to sex selection and boys being more perferable. Thats going to be a problem over the coming generations. There's a lot of self contained problems in individual countries that are going to become problems pretty quick over the coming generations in regards to their population. -.-

[Andara Bledin]

Evolution has the built in assumption that the 'best' survive...So what is this going to do to our overall intelligence as a race?

No. Not the best. That's a common misconception. It's the fittest that survive. There are many cases where superior specimens were discarded in favor of less perfect ones that happened to fit a particular ecological idiosyncrasy.

Also, like as not, we'll end up with another plague-run to cull our numbers. That's nature's way of handling it, usually.

^-.-^

[AdminAssistant]

Also, like as not, we'll end up with another plague-run to cull our numbers. That's nature's way of handling it, usually.

Heh, a character gave a monologue to that effect a few weeks ago on The Walking Dead.

[KabeRinnaul]

What makes me nervous is, in general, the smarter people tend to limit their families to 2-3 kids at most, while the people not smart enough to figure out birth control spawn like crazy. Evolution has the built in assumption that the 'best' survive...So what is this going to do to our overall intelligence as a race?

Never minding the slight misconception on evolution (which Andara already caught), how many of these supposedly less intelligent families have some sort of actual neurological reason for their intelligence (or lack thereof), which could presumably be passed down genetically? And how many are simply poorer and less-educated? While generational poverty will definitely be a setback to any of these people, I wouldn't assume the Idiocracy result. If we can improve our lower classes, primarily via education, we'll see a shift away from that trend.